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Business

Nigeria’s Oil Production Falls 8.3% to 1.54m bpd

Fanwo Richard
Last updated: January 20, 2026 10:55 am
By
Fanwo Richard
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Here is a clean, professional rephrasing suitable for a news story, with repetition removed and flow improved while preserving all key facts and quotes:

Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensate, declined by 8.3 per cent year-on-year to 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.684 million bpd recorded in the same period of 2024, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

Although the commission did not state specific reasons for the decline in its report released on Thursday, industry indicators point to limited investment and production challenges as major contributing factors.

On a month-on-month basis, oil output also dipped slightly to 1.544 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.599 million bpd in November 2025. The data showed that Nigeria failed to meet its 1.5 million bpd production quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

NUPRC noted that of the total December output, 122,385 bpd were condensate, which is excluded from OPEC’s production quota calculations. This placed Nigeria’s actual crude oil production at 1.421 million bpd during the period.

The shortfall also meant that the Federal Government did not meet its 2025 budget oil production benchmark of 2.06 million bpd, which was premised on an oil price of $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of about N1,500 to the dollar.

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According to the commission, the lowest and highest combined crude oil and condensate production levels during the month were 1.52 million bpd and 1.82 million bpd, respectively. It added that average crude oil production represented about 95 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.

Similarly, OPEC, in its January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), reported that Nigeria’s crude oil output, excluding condensate, fell by 0.9 per cent month-on-month to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025, from 1.436 million bpd in November. The organisation said the figures were based on data obtained through direct communication, confirming that Nigeria did not meet its assigned quota.

Reacting to the development, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Wumi Iledare, attributed the persistent production decline to longstanding structural issues in the sector.

“The reasons are familiar: insecurity, a mature basin with no major new discoveries, and the failure to offer fresh hydrocarbon blocks for bidding,” Iledare said. “Governance gaps remain overwhelming, and policy uncertainty continues to weaken investor confidence.

“The selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) must stop. Nigeria urgently needs a clearly designated leader with institutional authority to drive the sector. Too many proxy drivers will not work. I cannot recall the last time Nigeria met its OPEC quota.”

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